We're on a game show.
In front of us, there are 3 doors. Behind 2 of them is a piece of cheese. The other one is a sporting car. We don't know which is which.
We can only pick one, so we pick door number 1.
There's this guy that knows the doors, so AFTER we picked door 1, he will pick a losing door between the 2 left (he knows the doors, so, of course, he will ALWAYS pick a losing one).
Then, we are given the choice to keep our door, or switch to to the one that the guy didn't choose. Should we switch? Which are the chances?
Yes, this is a probabilty question. No, the answer isn't obvious. Try doing it a couple hundred times with balls and cups, and you will see how terribly wrong you are.
Good luck.
In front of us, there are 3 doors. Behind 2 of them is a piece of cheese. The other one is a sporting car. We don't know which is which.
We can only pick one, so we pick door number 1.
There's this guy that knows the doors, so AFTER we picked door 1, he will pick a losing door between the 2 left (he knows the doors, so, of course, he will ALWAYS pick a losing one).
Then, we are given the choice to keep our door, or switch to to the one that the guy didn't choose. Should we switch? Which are the chances?
Yes, this is a probabilty question. No, the answer isn't obvious. Try doing it a couple hundred times with balls and cups, and you will see how terribly wrong you are.
Good luck.
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66.66% chance of winning car if you switch
33.33% chance of winning car if you don't
33.33% chance of winning car if you don't
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50% chance of winning if you switch
50% chance of winning if you keep
no matter which door you pick, there will always be a losing door left for the guy to pick. and in the end we are left with 2 doors, one winning and one losing. so the chance of winning is 50% if you keep: for you could have picked the winning door from the start or you chose the losing door.
50% chance of winning if you keep
no matter which door you pick, there will always be a losing door left for the guy to pick. and in the end we are left with 2 doors, one winning and one losing. so the chance of winning is 50% if you keep: for you could have picked the winning door from the start or you chose the losing door.
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I think it's better to switch. You have a 2/3 chance of being wrong on your initial attempt so switching would guarantee you get the correct door.
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thats more suggestive thinking than maths tbh