A fair coin is tossed three times.
The events A, B, and C are defined as follows:
A: {At least one head is observed}
B: {At least two heads are observed}
C: {The number of heads observed is odd}
Find the following probabilities
(note: 0 is an even number; "and", "or", "not" have their usual meaning of intersection, union, complement).
(a) P (C)
(b) P (A or (not B))
(c) P ((not A) or B or (not C))
probability is my weakness. So these questions make no sense.. I understand complement, intersection, and union though; but how to add them with coin tossing? no idea.
The events A, B, and C are defined as follows:
A: {At least one head is observed}
B: {At least two heads are observed}
C: {The number of heads observed is odd}
Find the following probabilities
(note: 0 is an even number; "and", "or", "not" have their usual meaning of intersection, union, complement).
(a) P (C)
(b) P (A or (not B))
(c) P ((not A) or B or (not C))
probability is my weakness. So these questions make no sense.. I understand complement, intersection, and union though; but how to add them with coin tossing? no idea.
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(a)
P(C)
= P(The number of heads is odds)
= P(1 head or 3 heads)
= P(1 head) + P(3 heads)
= [(1/2)(1/2)(1/2) + (1/2)(1/2)(1/2) + (1/2)(1/2)(1/2)] + P(3 heads)
= [3(1/2)^3] + P(3 heads)
= 3/8 + P(3 heads)
= 3/8 + [(1/2)(1/2)(1/2)]
= 3/8 +1/8
= 4/8
= 1/2
(b)
P(A or (not B))
= P(A) + P(not B)
= P(at least 1 head) + P(not at least 2 heads)
= P(1 head or 2 heads or 3 heads) + P(0 heads or 1 head)
= P(1 head) + P(2 heads) + P(3 heads) + P(0 heads) + P(1 head) note: Since A and notB overlap when exactly 1 head is tossed, we aren't really adding P(1 head) twice, but it is left in this step for clarity. It is removed in the next step.
= P(0 heads) + P(1 head) + P(2 heads) + P(3 heads) note: Now it is important to notice that the answer is 1 (i.e. 100% chance) since we can only toss 0, 1, 2 or 3 heads.
= 1
(c)
P((not A) or B or (not C))
= P(notA) + P(B) + P(notC)
= P(not at least 1 head is observed) + P(at least 2 heads are observed) + P(the number of heads is not odd)
= P(0 heads) + P(2 heads or 3 heads) + P(the number of heads is even)
= P(0 heads) + P(2 heads) + P(3 heads) + P(0 heads or 2 heads) note: notC is actually contained by the union of notA and B (kinda like the first note), so we will remove it in the next step.
P(C)
= P(The number of heads is odds)
= P(1 head or 3 heads)
= P(1 head) + P(3 heads)
= [(1/2)(1/2)(1/2) + (1/2)(1/2)(1/2) + (1/2)(1/2)(1/2)] + P(3 heads)
= [3(1/2)^3] + P(3 heads)
= 3/8 + P(3 heads)
= 3/8 + [(1/2)(1/2)(1/2)]
= 3/8 +1/8
= 4/8
= 1/2
(b)
P(A or (not B))
= P(A) + P(not B)
= P(at least 1 head) + P(not at least 2 heads)
= P(1 head or 2 heads or 3 heads) + P(0 heads or 1 head)
= P(1 head) + P(2 heads) + P(3 heads) + P(0 heads) + P(1 head) note: Since A and notB overlap when exactly 1 head is tossed, we aren't really adding P(1 head) twice, but it is left in this step for clarity. It is removed in the next step.
= P(0 heads) + P(1 head) + P(2 heads) + P(3 heads) note: Now it is important to notice that the answer is 1 (i.e. 100% chance) since we can only toss 0, 1, 2 or 3 heads.
= 1
(c)
P((not A) or B or (not C))
= P(notA) + P(B) + P(notC)
= P(not at least 1 head is observed) + P(at least 2 heads are observed) + P(the number of heads is not odd)
= P(0 heads) + P(2 heads or 3 heads) + P(the number of heads is even)
= P(0 heads) + P(2 heads) + P(3 heads) + P(0 heads or 2 heads) note: notC is actually contained by the union of notA and B (kinda like the first note), so we will remove it in the next step.
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