To what extent can humans predict an event before chaos theory takes effect

I heard that long term predictions of non linear events are technically impossible, but events such as the weather are 'predicted' all the time. (My account is new, so please don't assume I'm a complete fool because I have no points.)

We predict by the things that are before us.
Ex: if we see flames slowly reaching a gas station we know there'll be an explosion. The power of "deduction".

Statistics, negative feedback, and a stable, self-normalizing universe. When a single U235 atom will decay is completely unpredictable. But it's very predictable that in about 700,000 years half of them will.