It is common knowledge that Earth's magnetic poles are shifting. This is an event that has never occurred in human history so virtually nothing is known about it or its consequences. Any "knowledge" on the subject is pure speculation. Any facts concerning it are pure pseudoscience.
Another well known fact is that the Sun goes through solar cycles, in which sunspot activity oscillates over a period of 12-13 years. Peaks in the cycle represent maximum activity - up to 3 coronal mass ejections per day - and troughs represent solar minima - perhaps 1 CME every 5 days.
Another well-known fact is that the next solar cycle is expected to be a particularly active one. Not like anything we haven't seen before, but one for consideration.
Now, as for my question:
Let's suppose a particularly large CME or a series of large CMEs were to occur while the magnetic poles are shifting - and let's say that one of the poles is over Manhattan when these CMEs occur (assuming that the magnetosphere stays in tact during the shift). Let's also suppose that the pole is pointing directly, or in the general direction of the Sun, leaving Manhattan completely exposed.
When these CMEs reach Earth's magnetosphere and an exposed Manhattan, what happens? I'm not looking for a simple answer such as "bye, bye Manhattan." I'd like to know what happens to not only Manhattan, but also any other effects it might have on the Earth (i.e. is NYC the only location affected by this event, if not, does this mean mass devastation across the planet).
Another well known fact is that the Sun goes through solar cycles, in which sunspot activity oscillates over a period of 12-13 years. Peaks in the cycle represent maximum activity - up to 3 coronal mass ejections per day - and troughs represent solar minima - perhaps 1 CME every 5 days.
Another well-known fact is that the next solar cycle is expected to be a particularly active one. Not like anything we haven't seen before, but one for consideration.
Now, as for my question:
Let's suppose a particularly large CME or a series of large CMEs were to occur while the magnetic poles are shifting - and let's say that one of the poles is over Manhattan when these CMEs occur (assuming that the magnetosphere stays in tact during the shift). Let's also suppose that the pole is pointing directly, or in the general direction of the Sun, leaving Manhattan completely exposed.
When these CMEs reach Earth's magnetosphere and an exposed Manhattan, what happens? I'm not looking for a simple answer such as "bye, bye Manhattan." I'd like to know what happens to not only Manhattan, but also any other effects it might have on the Earth (i.e. is NYC the only location affected by this event, if not, does this mean mass devastation across the planet).
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To be honest, not much will happen. There are several things to consider in this question.
First, large CMEs don't often happen. They are not frequent and even if they do occur, it would be a small chance that it would be directed right at Earth. Even most CMEs at the top of solar maximum are often not strong enough to penetrate our magnetosphere. It would require a record breaking outburst (at least a record for the past few hundred years) for us to see any affects. I'm sure you already knew that though, but I figured I should point it out anyway.
First, large CMEs don't often happen. They are not frequent and even if they do occur, it would be a small chance that it would be directed right at Earth. Even most CMEs at the top of solar maximum are often not strong enough to penetrate our magnetosphere. It would require a record breaking outburst (at least a record for the past few hundred years) for us to see any affects. I'm sure you already knew that though, but I figured I should point it out anyway.
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