How do I calculate this likelihood
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How do I calculate this likelihood

[From: ] [author: ] [Date: 12-07-11] [Hit: ]
= 80%Two attempts 80% x 80% = 64%Three attempts 64% x 80% 27.2%With each attempt the Pr. of getting successes is reduced.If you are starting with only a 6% Pr of success you will never achieve a 50% cumulative success success of 50% or am I missing something? if each event has positive outcome of 6% Pr of 2 positives = 0.06x0.......

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Is there something wrong with this question?
The more attempts that are made the lower is the Pr of success. e.g individual success Pr. = 80%
Two attempts 80% x 80% = 64%
Three attempts 64% x 80% 27.2%
With each attempt the Pr. of getting successes is reduced.

If you are starting with only a 6% Pr of success you will never achieve a 50% cumulative success success of 50% or am I missing something?

if each event has positive outcome of 6% Pr of 2 positives = 0.06x0.06 = 0.0036

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.06x = .5

5 / 0.06 = 83.3

seems like 80 more times, test:

(6 + 80) / (100 + 80)
86/180 = .47 (very close)

add 10 (for hell of it),

96/190 = .505 (too high), subtract 3:

93/187 = .497 (hmm), add one:

94/188 = .5 (that's it!)

94 - 6 = 88 (more attempts before reaching 50%)

PS. I'm afraid that number only works with the assumption that 6% was derived from 6/100 tries.
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