Here is a probability question i have no clue about. "The Doctor's Dilemma. It is known that, among all....

Favorites|Homepage
Subscriptions | sitemap

HOME > > Here is a probability question i have no clue about. "The Doctor's Dilemma. It is known that, among all....

Here is a probability question i have no clue about. "The Doctor's Dilemma. It is known that, among all....

[From: ] [author: ] [Date: 12-07-09] [Hit: ]

wikipedia.org/wiki/Positive_pr…PS. After doing this I realized your prevalence is set to 0.001 which is not the standard 0.500 and my program does now allow to change it. You should redo the calculations by hand and get the answer the other responder here has gotten.......

Positive Predictive Value: 0.970
Negative Predictive Value: 0.980

So the PPV is 97% -- the probability that the patient actually has the disease.
The formula for doing this by hand uses the Baye's Theorem of probability theory.

Really good explanations on http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Positive_pr…

PS. After doing this I realized your prevalence is set to 0.001 which is not the standard 0.500 and my program does now allow to change it. You should redo the calculations by hand and get the answer the other responder here has gotten. (The formula is on the link above.) You might do without the jargon involved but eventually this is where things leads to. =)

-

if you have just started, the best course for you is to assume that 100,000 people are tested (to eliminate decimals)

out of these, 100 have the disease
■ 98 of them will test positive

99,900 don't have the disease
■ 3% , ie 2997 will test positive

P(patient has the disease) = 98/(98+2997) = 3.166% <------

12

keywords: have,known,is,039,Dilemma,The,question,clue,probability,Doctor,about,Here,no,all,quot,It,among,that,Here is a probability question i have no clue about. "The Doctor's Dilemma. It is known that, among all....