The probability of a person being injured or killed in a car is about 1/50,000 (0.00002) on any particular trip. on average a person will take 16,000 car trips in a lifetime.
A) what is the probability of being injured/killed while riding in a car in one's lifetime.
B) Many people justify not wearing a seat belt by saying that the risk is so small that a seat belt won't be needed. How would you respond to that argument in light of your calculations about the long run?
A) what is the probability of being injured/killed while riding in a car in one's lifetime.
B) Many people justify not wearing a seat belt by saying that the risk is so small that a seat belt won't be needed. How would you respond to that argument in light of your calculations about the long run?
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(A) The probability of getting injured or killed while riding in a car in one's lifetime is the sum of the probabilities that you will get injured or killed on each trip.
The probability that you will get injured or killed on any trip is 1/50000, so the probability that you will get killed or injured on 16000 trips is the sum of 16000 1/50000's, which is:
16000/50000 = 8/25.
This corresponds to a 8/25 * 100 = 32% chance.
(B) The above calculations show that 32% of all people will be killed in a car crash, or about 1 in 3. That's quite a lot of people who can reduce their injuries by wearing a seatbelt.
I hope this helps!
The probability that you will get injured or killed on any trip is 1/50000, so the probability that you will get killed or injured on 16000 trips is the sum of 16000 1/50000's, which is:
16000/50000 = 8/25.
This corresponds to a 8/25 * 100 = 32% chance.
(B) The above calculations show that 32% of all people will be killed in a car crash, or about 1 in 3. That's quite a lot of people who can reduce their injuries by wearing a seatbelt.
I hope this helps!
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1.49%, or 1 in 67.
The motor-vehicle death rate per 100,000,000 vehicle-miles was 1.54 in 2005, up 0.7% from the previous year’s rate (1.53) and down 0.6% from the revised 2003 rate of 1.55. 45,800 people were killed in motor vehicle crashes in 2005, and 2.4 million were injured.
The most important factor in estimating the likelihood of death from an automobile accident is the number of miles driven or ridden. If a person does not commute, or does not own a car, the probability is much smaller than that of a traveling salesman.
The mean probability of death by car accident for United States residents is 1.49%.
The motor-vehicle death rate per 100,000,000 vehicle-miles was 1.54 in 2005, up 0.7% from the previous year’s rate (1.53) and down 0.6% from the revised 2003 rate of 1.55. 45,800 people were killed in motor vehicle crashes in 2005, and 2.4 million were injured.
The most important factor in estimating the likelihood of death from an automobile accident is the number of miles driven or ridden. If a person does not commute, or does not own a car, the probability is much smaller than that of a traveling salesman.
The mean probability of death by car accident for United States residents is 1.49%.
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The probability that someone will be injured/killed (i/k) at least once is 1- the probability that neither of these events will befall during the lifetime of the person
P(i/k) = 1 - P(not i/k) = 1 - (1 - 0.00002)^16000 = 1 - 0.99998^16000 = 1 - 0.726 = 27.4%
Frightening, isn't it?
P(i/k) = 1 - P(not i/k) = 1 - (1 - 0.00002)^16000 = 1 - 0.99998^16000 = 1 - 0.726 = 27.4%
Frightening, isn't it?
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A) (1/50,000) * 16,000 = 16,000/50,000 = 16/50 = 8/25 or 32% probability
B) 32% probability is not insignificant.
A safety belt can reduce injury, and save your life.
I think its worth it.
B) 32% probability is not insignificant.
A safety belt can reduce injury, and save your life.
I think its worth it.