The next day he begins the descent down the same trail to the bottom of the mountain when suddenly he looks at his watch and exclaims, "That is amazing! I was at this very same spot at exactly the same time of day yesterday on my way up."
What is the probability that a hiker will be at exactly the same spot on the mountain at the same time of day on his return trip, as he was on the previous day's hike up the mountain?
Is the probability closest to (A) 99% or (B) 50% or (C) 0.1% ?
What is the probability that a hiker will be at exactly the same spot on the mountain at the same time of day on his return trip, as he was on the previous day's hike up the mountain?
Is the probability closest to (A) 99% or (B) 50% or (C) 0.1% ?
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The answer is (A). Since it must happen, the probability is actually 1 (100%).
Explanation: Firstly, consider 2 men, one starting from the top of the mountain and hiking down while the other starts at the bottom and hikes up. At some time in the day, they will cross over. In other words they will be at the same place at the same time of day.
Now consider our man who has walked up on one day and begins the descent the next day. Imagine there is someone (a second person) shadowing his exact movements from the day before. When he meets his shadower (it must happen) it will be the exact place that he was the day before, and of course they are both at this spot at the same time.
Contrary to our common sense, which seems to say that this is an extremely unlikely event, it is a certainty.
NOTE: There is one unlikely event here, and that is that he will notice the time when he is at the correct location on both days, but that was not what the question asked.
Explanation: Firstly, consider 2 men, one starting from the top of the mountain and hiking down while the other starts at the bottom and hikes up. At some time in the day, they will cross over. In other words they will be at the same place at the same time of day.
Now consider our man who has walked up on one day and begins the descent the next day. Imagine there is someone (a second person) shadowing his exact movements from the day before. When he meets his shadower (it must happen) it will be the exact place that he was the day before, and of course they are both at this spot at the same time.
Contrary to our common sense, which seems to say that this is an extremely unlikely event, it is a certainty.
NOTE: There is one unlikely event here, and that is that he will notice the time when he is at the correct location on both days, but that was not what the question asked.
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This is a simplified version of the Fixed Point Theorem in topology. The answer is A), and it's actually 100%. To see why, first draw a graph of the hiker's ascent on the trail as a function of the time of the day, distance from the trailhead, not elevation. Then draw the graph of his descent on the following day. The two graphs will cross somewhere, unless he either 1) reaches the bottom before he started out the day before, or 2) he starts down after the time of his arrival at the top the day before. We'll assume that neither 1) nor 2) is true, otherwise it would be impossible to decide any probability at all.
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I strongly Believe the answer is (A) 99%. This is because when he is Halfway up or down the mountain you are in the same place. It takes the same amount to get halfway up as halfway down so therefore if he departed at the exact same time as he started his journey the day before he will get half way at approximately the same time.
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I guess it's B because he can either be on time or late.