Are we more educated now not to use it or what? JW, thanks.
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Drake's equation attempts to quantify the probability of intelligent life in the universe. The variables in the equation have never been known with any certainty, except possibly the percentage of stars that are long lived in the universe., We are now learning about the fraction of Sun like stars with planets, another term in the equation.We can only guess at the majority of the terms maybe in another 100 years we will know the answer or at least the probability of most of the terms.
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The Drake Equation is as useful now as when it was written, which is to say - not very useful. It provides a glimpse into the factors that determine the probability of intelligent life existing out there, but the fact that it is a string of assumptions multiplied together means that it is in fact entirely speculative in terms of quantitative application. You can get whatever answer you want to get, based on what initial assumptions you choose to make. That's not science; it's theater. It makes for good discussion after dinner. That's about it.
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The Drake Equation is as valid now as when it was first introduced. The major change effecting it is how you estimate the number of extrasolar planets in our galaxy. That estimate should be quite large, now that we've found over 500 extrasolar planets virtually in our backyard.
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It's definitely still relevant. And, as we find the numbers - stars with planets, planets sized like Earth, planets with atmospheres, etc., the equation will become more accurate.
But... right now, it truly is guesswork on filling in most of those variables.
But... right now, it truly is guesswork on filling in most of those variables.
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The Drake Equation is still valid. It's just never been clear what we humans would do with the answer.